Month sparkling
Jan-80 1686
Feb-80 1591
Mar-80 2304
Apr-80 1712
May-80 1471
Jun-80 1377
Jul-80 1966
Aug-80 2453
Sep-80 1984
Oct-80 2596
Nov-80 4087
Dec-80 5179
Jan-81 1530
Feb-81 1523
Mar-81 1633
Apr-81 1976
May-81 1170
Jun-81 1480
Jul-81 1781
Aug-81 2472
Sep-81 1981
Oct-81 2273
Nov-81 3857
Dec-81 4551
Jan-82 1510
Feb-82 1329
Mar-82 1518
Apr-82 1790
May-82 1537
Jun-82 1449
Jul-82 1954
Aug-82 1897
Sep-82 1706
Oct-82 2514
Nov-82 3593
Dec-82 4524
Jan-83 1609
Feb-83 1638
Mar-83 2030
Apr-83 1375
May-83 1320
Jun-83 1245
Jul-83 1600
Aug-83 2298
Sep-83 2191
Oct-83 2511
Nov-83 3440
Dec-83 4923
Jan-84 1609
Feb-84 1435
Mar-84 2061
Apr-84 1789
May-84 1567
Jun-84 1404
Jul-84 1597
Aug-84 3159
Sep-84 1759
Oct-84 2504
Nov-84 4273
Dec-84 5274
Jan-85 1771
Feb-85 1682
Mar-85 1846
Apr-85 1589
May-85 1896
Jun-85 1379
Jul-85 1645
Aug-85 2512
Sep-85 1771
Oct-85 3727
Nov-85 4388
Dec-85 5434
Jan-86 1606
Feb-86 1523
Mar-86 1577
Apr-86 1605
May-86 1765
Jun-86 1403
Jul-86 2584
Aug-86 3318
Sep-86 1562
Oct-86 2349
Nov-86 3987
Dec-86 5891
Jan-87 1389
Feb-87 1442
Mar-87 1548
Apr-87 1935
May-87 1518
Jun-87 1250
Jul-87 1847
Aug-87 1930
Sep-87 2638
Oct-87 3114
Nov-87 4405
Dec-87 7242
Jan-88 1853
Feb-88 1779
Mar-88 2108
Apr-88 2336
May-88 1728
Jun-88 1661
Jul-88 2230
Aug-88 1645
Sep-88 2421
Oct-88 3740
Nov-88 4988
Dec-88 6757
Jan-89 1757
Feb-89 1394
Mar-89 1982
Apr-89 1650
May-89 1654
Jun-89 1406
Jul-89 1971
Aug-89 1968
Sep-89 2608
Oct-89 3845
Nov-89 4514
Dec-89 6694
Jan-90 1720
Feb-90 1321
Mar-90 1859
Apr-90 1628
May-90 1615
Jun-90 1457
Jul-90 1899
Aug-90 1605
Sep-90 2424
Oct-90 3116
Nov-90 4286
Dec-90 6047
Jan-91 1902
Feb-91 2049
Mar-91 1874
Apr-91 1279
May-91 1432
Jun-91 1540
Jul-91 2214
Aug-91 1857
Sep-91 2408
Oct-91 3252
Nov-91 3627
Dec-91 6153
Jan-92 1577
Feb-92 1667
Mar-92 1993
Apr-92 1997
May-92 1783
Jun-92 1625
Jul-92 2076
Aug-92 1773
Sep-92 2377
Oct-92 3088
Nov-92 4096
Dec-92 6119
Jan-93 1494
Feb-93 1564
Mar-93 1898
Apr-93 2121
May-93 1831
Jun-93 1515
Jul-93 2048
Aug-93 2795
Sep-93 1749
Oct-93 3339
Nov-93 4227
Dec-93 6410
Jan-94 1197
Feb-94 1968
Mar-94 1720
Apr-94 1725
May-94 1674
Jun-94 1693
Jul-94 2031
Aug-94 1495
Sep-94 2968
Oct-94 3385
Nov-94 3729
Dec-94 5999
Assume a seasonality of 12.
For this dataset, please do the following:
1. Create time index t, t-sq, and 12 dummies (one for each month).
2. Run a linear trend model + Seasonality (drop April dummy) on the full dataset and forecast 12 new values.
Question: Which of the following numbers represents the forecasted value for August 1995?
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